Home Purchase Loans

Mortgage applications continued to decline even as mortgage rates finally moved lower. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 5.3% drop in total application volume for the week ending October 16, despite the first weekly decline in mortgage rates in more than two months. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.41% from 7.50% the previous week. That improvement wasn't enough to revive demand, with both purchase and refinance applications moving lower. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 7% for the week and was 18% below year-ago levels . Refinances fared somewhat better, declining 2%, though activity remained 59% lower than a year earlier. “Purchase applications fell 18 percent behind last year's pace, as higher rates are pricing buyers out of the market,” said MBA's Joel Kan, who also noted that adjustable-rate mortgages remain an option for qualified borrowers looking for lower rates. ARMs held steady at 10.5% of applications , with rates nearly a full percentage point below the 30-year fixed average. The refinance share of total applications increased to 39.0% from 37.7% the previous week. That shift came despite the decline in refinance volume, reflecting the steeper drop in purchase applications. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.41% (from 7.50%) | Points: 0.75 (from 0.83) 15yr Fixed: 6.73% (from 6.87%) | Points: 0.73 (from 0.90) Jumbo 30yr: 7.33% (from 7.49%) | Points: 0.60 (from 0.70) FHA: 7.13% (from 7.19%) | Points: 1.15 (from 1.21) 5/1 ARM: 6.46% (from 6.54%) | Points: 1.11 (from 1.13)

Residential construction failed to find even footing in September, with housing starts declining and single-family building permits pulling back, while total permits held nearly steady and completions edged higher. This week's Census Bureau data highlights weakness in new construction, particularly on the single-family side, while starts and completions were comparatively stable. Privately owned housing starts fell 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million , down 7.4% from September 2025. Single-family starts declined 4.6% to 859k , and multi-family came in at 349k . Building permits were more stable, slipping just 0.2% to an annual rate of 1.400 million , although they were 3.0% below the September 2025 pace. Single-family authorizations fell 4.0% to 845k , while multi-family permits rose to 503k . The contrast between total permits and single-family authorizations suggests that the overall pipeline for future construction was relatively steady, even as the single-family segment weakened. Multi-family permits accounted for a larger share of total authorizations in September, though monthly figures can fluctuate considerably in that segment. Housing completions bounced back from last month, and increased 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.192 million , still 14.0% below the September 2025 rate. Single-family completions slipped 2.4% to 840k , multi-family completions came in at 339k .

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped three points to 29 in October--its lowest level in 14 years. As per usual, higher mortgage rates, rising costs, and worsening labor and lot conditions were the driving factors.  All three component indices declined, with prospective buyer traffic suffering the steepest drop. HMI Component September October Change Current sales conditions 35 33 -2 Sales expectations 37 32 -5 Prospective buyer traffic 23 18 -5 "Buyer traffic has now fallen to its lowest level since April 2012, excluding the initial pandemic shock in April 2020.” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. Builders are also facing higher construction loan, material and diesel costs, along with construction delays tied to immigration enforcement activity. Builders have responded by continuing to slash prices. The share reporting price cuts climbed to 43% in October, the highest level during the 2020-2026 period. The average reduction remained at 6% for the seventh consecutive month. Sales incentives were reported by 65% of builders, marking the 19th straight month that at least 60% have offered them.

If you're busy, we can make this quick. Existing home sales dropped sharply from over 6m units per year starting in 2022 and had bottomed out around 4m units per year by the end of 2023. They've done essentially nothing exciting since then and the latest update is no exception. The end.  If you prefer to read an article-sized article, here you go: Existing-home sales edged higher in September with The National Association of REALTORS® reporting a 1.5% increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million . August and September mark the two slowest months for home sales this year, as higher borrowing costs continued to limit the pool of qualified buyers. “Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home,” Yun said. Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.86% in September , up from 6.67% in August and 6.35% a year earlier. Inventory continued to offer buyers more options than they had a year ago, although the latest increase was relatively modest. Total housing inventory reached 1.60 million units , up 1.9% from August and 4.6% year over year . Buyers may also have more room to negotiate as homes take longer to sell. The median time on market increased to 33 days , up from 31 days in August. Yun said the combination of higher inventory and longer selling times could require sellers to offer price reductions or other incentives to attract buyers.

Mortgage applications continued to lose ground as mortgage rates held near their highest levels in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending October 9. That's an important date, because a substantial majority of a fairly sharp decline in interest rates occurred AFTER October 9. As such, next week's data is a great opportunity to see the impact of lower rates.  Purchase activity took another step back, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index falling 4% for the week and running 16% below year-ago levels . Refinances were nearly unchanged, slipping just 0.4%, but remained 56% lower than a year earlier. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 7.50% , its highest level since November 2023 and more than a percentage point above its level a year ago. MBA's Joel Kan notes, “As a result, borrowers continue to rely more on ARM loans to help lower their monthly payments." ARMs accounted for 10.5% of all applications , the highest share since October 2025. The refinance share also ticked higher, reaching 37.7% of total applications from 37.0% the previous week, with a 5% drop in FHA refinance applications being the main driver of the small overall decline. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.50% (from 7.49%) | Points: 0.83 (from 0.84) 15yr Fixed: 6.87% (from 6.71%) | Points: 0.90 (from 1.05) Jumbo 30yr: 7.49% (from 7.39%) | Points: 0.70 (from 0.52) FHA: 7.19% (from 7.14%) | Points: 1.21 (from 1.36) 5/1 ARM: 6.54% (from 6.43%) | Points: 1.13 (from 1.69)

Mortgage demand shocked no one by declining last week as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 6% drop in total mortgage application volume for the week ending September 25. Both sides of the market moved lower, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index falling 4% and refinance applications dropping 9% . MBA said purchase and refinance activity both reached their slowest weekly pace since 2025 . Refinances always get hit hardest by rate spikes with the index now 56% lower than a year earlier. Government refinance applications fell 13% from the prior week. "Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in almost three years, pushing borrowers to the sidelines," said Joel Kan, MBA's Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. He noted that the 30-year fixed rate reached 7.30%, its highest level since November 2023. There was another sign that some borrowers are looking for alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. ARM loans accounted for 10.3% of all applications, the highest share since October 2025. Kan said ARM rates were roughly 80 basis points below fixed rates, although the average 5/1 ARM rate also moved higher in the latest survey. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.30% (from 7.12%) | Points: 0.75 (from 0.73) 15yr Fixed: 6.56% (from 6.43%) | Points: 1.02 (from 1.15) Jumbo 30yr: 7.27% (from 7.15%) | Points: 0.50 (from 0.53) FHA: 6.97% (from 6.78%) | Points: 1.18 (from 0.96) 5/1 ARM: 6.47% (from 6.10%) | Points: 1.20 (from 0.76)

Home prices picked up a little more speed in July, as both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed stronger annual appreciation than in their previous readings. The gains remain relatively modest by historical standards, and while nominal prices are still moving higher nationally, the picture looks considerably less impressive after accounting for inflation. The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% from June to July, bringing the annual increase to 2.6% . While the national market is still technically appreciating, there's more and more variation between different metro areas with some holding steady or even contracting. Case-Shiller tells a similar story, though its national measure is running at a somewhat slower pace. The U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.9% year over year in July, up from 1.6% in June. The 10-City Composite increased 3.4% , while the 20-City Composite was up 2.5% . The annual price appreciation chart shows a nice little uptick, but the takeaway is tempered in inflation-adjusted terms. Both of the big U.S. inflation reports showed annual changes of 3.4% last month, and even higher in July (the month that lines up with these home price reports). Any way you slice it, that means home prices aren't keeping pace with broader inflation. Whether or not that's a bad thing is another story. Some would say it wouldn't be the end of the world for prices to merely hold steady and allow income growth to slowly chip away at affordability. 

The new home market returned to the longer-term range last month, with sales seeing their 4th biggest rebound in 4 years.  Sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, up 6.4% from July's revised 643,000 but 2.0% below the same month last year. The increase puts sales back above the 600,000 mark after July's pullback, although the broader trend remains relatively flat. The number of new houses for sale was virtually unchanged at 483,000 , down 2.0% from a year earlier. With sales picking up while inventory held steady, the implied supply fell to 8.5 months , down from 9.0 months in July and essentially unchanged from August 2025. Pricing was mixed, the median sales price edged up to $393,700 , a 0.4% increase from July but 5.8% below August 2025. The average sales price fell to $478,700 , down 9.1% from July and 8.8% from a year earlier. As a reminder, price movements in this data set are not necessarily apples to apples as they don't adjust for changes in square footage, neighborhood, etc. Sales (MoM): +6.4% Sales (YoY): -2.0% Inventory (MoM): 0.0% Inventory (YoY): -2.0% Months' Supply: 8.5 (down from 9.0 prior month; 8.5 YoY) Median Price: $393,700 Average Price: $478,700

Mortgage demand remained subdued last week as the 30-year fixed rate climbed above 7%. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.5% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending September 18, following a 4.1% drop the week before.  Purchase activity was the only saving grace. While technically 1% lower week-over-week, it has generally been moving sideways for the past few weeks.  Refinance demand was more sluggish. The Refinance Index declined another 3% and was 62% lower than a year earlier. MBA said the pace of refinancing has now reached its slowest level since February 2025 , a reflection of how few existing borrowers can benefit from replacing their current mortgage with one carrying today's higher rate. "Mortgage rates vaulted higher last week, with the 30-year fixed rate at 7.12 percent – the highest level since May 2024," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's SVP and Chief Economist. He added that the higher fixed rates prompted more borrowers to consider adjustable-rate mortgages, even as both purchase and refinance applications continued to decline. The shift toward ARMs was one of the more notable developments in the latest data. ARMs accounted for 9.8% of application volume, up from 8.4% the week before. The average rate for a 5/1 ARM fell to 6.10%, putting it more than a full percentage point below the 30-year fixed rate. That spread is large enough to make the adjustable option more noticeable to borrowers facing 7% or higher fixed rates.

Pending home sales edged higher in August as gains in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, increased 0.3% from July but was down 4.7% from a year earlier. The modest increase came despite another period of elevated mortgage rates. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said income growth has been outpacing home price growth, but higher borrowing costs continue to limit the resulting improvement in buying power and housing demand. Pending sales remain roughly 30% below pre-pandemic levels nationally. Activity peaked in 2021 when mortgage rates were near 3%, suggesting that lower borrowing costs remain an important factor in bringing sidelined demand back into the market. Regional Results Area Monthly Change Annual Change Additional Detail Northeast -4.2% -3.9% Among the fastest home price growth Midwest -1.6% -4.9% Among the fastest home price growth South +2.3% -3.8%   West +3.0% -6.7%