Home Purchase Loans

Existing-home sales slipped in August, falling below the 4 million annualized pace for the first time since June 2025, while a sharp increase in inventory gave buyers more options and pushed the supply of homes to its highest level in more than a decade. The National Association of REALTORS® reported a 2.0% decline in sales from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million , while sales were 1.2% lower than a year earlier. “Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it's not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that sales are still 1.6% higher year-to-date through the first eight months of the year, with wage growth and job creation helping to support demand despite elevated borrowing costs. Inventory provided a more encouraging development for buyers. Total housing inventory rose to 1.62 million units , up 3.2% from July and 5.9% from a year ago. It was the first time since November 2019 that inventory exceeded 1.6 million units. The increase in supply pushed the market to a 4.9-month supply , up from 4.6 months in both July and August 2025. Yun noted that the current level is the highest in more than ten years and should give buyers more room to negotiate. Despite higher inventory, home prices continued to climb, although the pace of appreciation remained modest. The median existing-home price increased to $429,100 , up 1.6% from August 2025 and marking the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

Mortgage application activity pulled back last week, with a sharp decline in refinancing more than offsetting relatively stable purchase demand as mortgage rates moved higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending September 4. Purchase applications were little changed, slipping just 0.2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. On an unadjusted basis, purchase activity fell 3%, but remained 4% higher than the same week one year ago, earning it's spot as the one positive note for this week's report. Refinancing was a different story. The Refinance Index fell 6% from the previous week and was 25% below year-ago levels, reaching its slowest weekly pace since May 2025. Refinances also accounted for a smaller portion of overall mortgage activity, with the refinance share falling to 40.9% from 41.8% the previous week. Notably, this data was collected before this week's sharpest rate spikes, so this trend will likely accelerate next week. "Mortgage rates moved higher last week, driven by ongoing investor concerns over inflation and the federal budget deficit," said Joel Kan, MBA's Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Kan noted that the 30-year fixed rate reached 6.85%, its highest level since June 2025 and 36 basis points above the same time last year.

Mortgage application activity showed some signs of life last week, with a modest increase in purchase demand helping offset another decline in refinancing as mortgage rates reached their highest level in four weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 28. Purchase applications held down the fort, rising 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Activity was still 0.2% below the same week one year ago, but the relatively stable year-over-year comparison suggests buyers are continuing to transact despite mortgage rates hovering near 7%. Refinance demand moved in the opposite direction. The Refinance Index fell 1% from the previous week and remained 19% below year-ago levels. Refinances also represented a slightly smaller share of overall activity, slipping to 41.8% from 42.0% the previous week. "Mortgage rates reached their highest levels in four weeks as investors’ concerns about inflation and growing deficits push yields higher across the globe," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. There was another sign of borrowers adjusting to the rate environment. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity climbed to 8.0% , its highest level in five weeks, as the average rate for a 5/1 ARM fell to 5.94%. FHA loans accounted for a smaller share of applications, while the VA share increased noticeably from the previous week.

Mortgage application activity softened last week, with both purchase and refinance demand moving lower as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in three weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 21. Purchase applications were down 0.3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% below the same week one year ago. FHA applications accounted for much of the weekly decline, falling 7% . Refinance demand also lost some ground. The Refinance Index fell 2% from the previous week and remained 17% below year-ago levels. FHA and VA refinance applications saw particularly notable declines, while the average refinance loan size fell to its lowest level since June 2025. "Mortgage rates reached their highest level in three weeks, with the 30-year fixed rate up slightly to 6.78 percent. Mortgage rates have increased around 20 basis points over the past two months, which has dampened refinancing activity," said Joel Kan, MBA's Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Despite the pullback in refinancing, refinances accounted for a slightly larger share of overall activity, rising to 42.0% from 41.9% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share also ticked higher, reaching 7.9% from 7.7%.

The new home market struggled to maintain the momentum seen in June, with sales falling sharply in July and inventory moving higher. The latest Census Bureau and HUD figures point to another month of uneven activity for builders, as buyers continue to contend with affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July, down 10.5% from June's revised 678,000 and 6.3% below the same month last year. The monthly decline largely erased June's increase, leaving the broader sales trend little changed. In the bigger picture, the new home market has been broadly flat since the post-COVID volatility faded in early 2023. Meanwhile, builders added to the pool of available homes. The number of new houses for sale reached 488,000 , an increase of 1.9% from June, although inventory remained 1.6% below its level a year earlier. With the sales pace slowing as inventory increased, the implied supply rose to 9.6 months , up from 8.5 months in June and 9.2 months in July 2025. Pricing offered a mixed signal. The median sales price slipped to $393,800 , down 2.3% from June and 0.9% from a year earlier. The average sales price, however, climbed to $508,800 , an increase of 4.1% from the previous month and 5.4% from July 2025. As a reminder, price movements in this data set are not necessarily apples to apples, since changes in the mix of homes sold can have a significant effect on the reported figures.

Home prices continued to edge higher in the latest readings from FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices , with both measures showing somewhat stronger annual gains than they did a month earlier. The improvement was still relatively modest, however, and inflation continued to run ahead of home values. At the same time, the national figures continue to mask a growing divide between markets where prices are still climbing at a healthy pace and those where values have begun to slip. According to FHFA, U.S. house prices rose 2.1% between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, while prices increased 0.3% from the first quarter. The agency's seasonally adjusted index was unchanged from May to June, suggesting that the quarterly gain came without much additional momentum heading into the summer. Prices have continued to appreciate nationally, but the current pace remains a far cry from the rapid increases seen earlier in the decade. The FHFA data also show just how differently housing markets are behaving across the country. All nine census divisions posted annual gains, led by the East North Central division at 4.5% . The Pacific division brought up the rear with appreciation of just above 0% . At the state level, Alaska recorded the largest increase at 8.3% , while Vermont and Hawaii followed at 7.3% and 5.8%, respectively. Only four states saw prices decline, with New Mexico posting the largest drop at 1.2% .

Residential construction pulled back in July as housing starts and completions declined from June levels, while building permits rebounded. The latest Census Bureau data suggests builders remained cautious about active construction, even as the increase in permits pointed to somewhat stronger activity ahead. Privately owned housing starts fell 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million , down 13.5% from the July 2025 pace. Single-family starts declined 9.9% to 808k , while starts for buildings containing five units or more fell to 421k . Building permits reversed course as well, increasing 5.0% from June to an annual rate of 1.443 million , and were 3.1% above the July 2025 rate. Single-family authorizations rose 2.5% to 894k , while permits for buildings containing five units or more increased to 490k . The divergence between permits and starts highlights the uneven pace of residential construction. After June's strong rebound in starts, activity pulled back in July, particularly in the single-family sector. At the same time, the increase in permits suggests builders were still authorizing new projects despite the weaker pace of actual construction. Multi-family starts remain in an uptrend, but they tend to lag major changes in single family starts by roughly 6 months.

Pending home sales declined again in July as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 2.3% from June and was down 2.2% from a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since January 2026. The latest report points to continued affordability challenges for prospective buyers. Higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices are keeping many buyers on the sidelines, while homes are taking longer to sell and fewer buyers are bidding above asking prices compared with a year ago. “The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that’s pulling back contract signings,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that record-high home prices are also contributing to longer marketing times, though conditions vary considerably across local markets. Yun added that job gains could bring more buyers into the market if mortgage rates stabilize or decline, although the effects of stronger employment take time to show up in housing activity. Pending contracts are currently 30% below their 2019 level, while payroll employment is 5% above its pre-pandemic level, suggesting a significant amount of potential demand remains on the sidelines. Contract activity declined in all four major regions during July. The Northeast posted a 2.0% monthly decline, while the Midwest fell 0.7% . The South decreased 2.2% , and the West recorded the largest decline at 4.7% . Compared with a year earlier, pending sales increased 1.7% in the Midwest but declined 0.2% in the Northeast, 3.0% in the South and 7.1% in the West.

Builder sentiment improved slightly in August, but confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes remained subdued as elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs and broader economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the industry. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased one point to 35 , marking the 16th consecutive month the index has remained below 40. This latest reading reflects all the familiar challenges facing builders, including affordability pressures, elevated material costs and weak demand for spec homes, with rising gas and diesel prices emerging as a new face among the usual suspects. Current sales conditions improved two points to 39 , while sales expectations over the next six months held steady at 43 . Traffic of prospective buyers also remained unchanged at 23 , indicating that buyer activity continues to lag despite the modest improvement in overall builder sentiment. “While builder sentiment edged higher in August, builders continue to contend with high construction costs and broader economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. Owens noted that rising gas and diesel prices are pushing up material costs, while spec home building remains weak. He also pointed to the Midwest as a bright spot, with new home sales in the region up more than 2% so far in 2026. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said the latest survey continues to show signs of weakness in the home building market. He noted that custom home builders continue to report stronger conditions than spec builders, while smaller markets and smaller builders are also outperforming their larger counterparts.

Mortgage application activity was little changed last week as higher mortgage rates continued to weigh on purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.4% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 14. Purchase applications decreased 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 3% below the same week one year ago. MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said affordability difficulties have reemerged as a reason for some homebuyers to delay purchase decisions, citing the impact of higher mortgage rates on monthly payments. Refinance activity provided a modest counterpoint, with the Refinance Index increasing 2% from the previous week. Despite the weekly gain, refinance applications remained 18% below year-ago levels. The average refinance loan size fell to $282,200 , the lowest level since June 2025, as borrowers with larger loan balances remain less likely to refinance at current rates. "Mortgage rates and applications changed little last week, with just a slight increase in refinances for conventional and VA loans, while FHA refinances were lower," said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. The refinance share of total mortgage activity increased to 41.9% from 40.7% the previous week, while the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share decreased to 7.7% from 7.9%.